An Uneasy Look Back at 2007 in Nepal
FEBRUARY 12, 2008
2007 was a year of electoral postponements, growing violence in the Terai, continuing economic deterioration, lawlessness, lack of accountability and new shades of terrorism.
There were moments of hope. April 1,
2007: Nepal entered a transitional democratic process with the
implementation of a new interim constitution and the formation of a
government comprised of the Seven Party Alliance (SPA) and the
Communist Party of Nepal (Maoists). At stake were the proposed
Constituent Assembly elections. And although the elections were
repeatedly delayed throughout the year, on December 23, a tenuous grip
on governmental unity grew stronger with the alliance’s signing of a
23-point agreement.
Some analysts have claimed that this
fragile cohesiveness was made supportable by ongoing pressure exerted
from the international community. The value (or irritation, depending
on the view) of foreign influence – by the UN, the EU, USA, India, UK, China, as well as foreign NGOs – no doubt figured into the equation. But it is more important to remember the hard work of the Nepalis themselves – a march toward peace conducted under the shadow of high personal risk. This included a wide variety of men and women:
1. Political bigwigs who grappled with the importance of reaching beyond party lines.
2. Courageous journalists, professors and other professionals.
3. Indomitable business people, big and small.
4. Human rights activists.
5. Ethnic and cultural groups who chose to signal their grievances through peaceful forums rather than armed posses.
6.
Bright young leaders who inspired their peers to think inclusively, in
sharp contrast to youth gangs whose strong-arm methods were thuggish in
character and results.
7. The remarkable resilience of the majority
of Nepalis – those Nepalis who advocated the need to maintain an
environment of open dialogue.
All of the above natives helped to prevent Nepal from tumbling into hopelessness.
Recent
events in Kenya, however, remind one of how quickly a country perceived
as somewhat stable can nosedive into a lethal free-for-all. The
Africanization of Nepal, an idea increasingly bandied about, really is
something to keep in mind. As in Kenya, there is a striking disconnect between the haves and have-nots in Nepal
– especially between the denizens of the Kathmandu Valley and the rural
majority. The abductions, the intimidation and the hunting down of
people of different ethnicities in the Terai, for instance, seem very
far away from the five-star hotels of the capital. But something
similar happened in Kenya and with disastrous consequences:
1. Vigilante road blocks paralyzed the flow of goods.
2.
Economic improvement was scuttled by an atmosphere of constant
interruption and intimidation. Who dared to invest in a country that
couldn’t protect its investors’ projects?
3. Disputation over
elections uncorked decades of frustration over land, political power,
societal standing and economic inequalities.
4. Young people
hacking to death communities from different ethnic origins grabbed
headlines while quiet efforts to wage peace went largely unnoticed.
Kathmandu
continues to be lulled by a false sense of security. Politicos continue
to posture for the benefit of their personal powerbases, while the
economic toll soars and the undercurrent of discontent bubbles to the
surface. This in spite of what occurred in Nepal in 2007:
1.
The procrastination and/or inability of the Seven Party Alliance and
the Maoists to deliver the promised elections deepened the impatience
and trust of common Nepalis.
2. Victims of the 10-year armed conflict were not rehabilitated.
3. The urgent problem of displaced people, perhaps as many as 200,000, was not resolved.
4.
Violence grew in the Terai. At least 130 people were killed and between
200 and 300 were kidnapped in Terai in 2007. An estimated 20-plus
insurgent groups popped up in the Terai. Some groups may have been
nothing more than a half-dozen criminals posing as a political entity.
But other groups were far larger and organized around legitimate
political beliefs. (Genuine or not, these Madeshi insurgents have
muddied the reality that, in fact, most Madehsis would prefer to
achieve peaceful resolution with the central government on board.)
Still, southern Nepalis are terrified to speak out, as well they should
be. Law and order is virtually non-existent and many areas. The Home
Minister is universally despised and Madeshi faith in a
Kathmandu-inspired solution is increasingly tainted by the question
“When?”
6. The Maoist youth wing, the “Young Communist League”
(YCL) upped the ante on spreading terror throughout the country by
creating their own questionable “law and order.” YCL extortion,
kidnapping and intimidation – without fear of prosecution -- severely
compromised the aspirations of many peace-loving Nepalis and undermined
their belief that a democratic process could ever take place.
7.
Improvement in Nepal’s infrastructure was negligible because of Nepal’s
ongoing instability. The extremely poor road system continued to make
the riding of a bus more like a vertiginous switchback version of
Russian roulette. When natural disasters occurred, such as the
devastating monsoon floods and landslides of July 2007, the
responsiveness of the interim government proved to be dismal. Likewise,
the bridge collapse of December in Surkhet, which resulted in the death
of 19 people and an additional 90 injured, reminded the people of how
shaky Nepal’s infrastructure really was, in spite of decades of huge
donations from foreign countries.
8. The Federation of Nepali
Journalists reported 652 cases of excesses against reporters and media
houses: beatings, abductions, intimidations, forced shutdowns of
newspapers and various publishers – mostly at the hands of either YCL
cadres or Terai rebels.
9. The energy crisis became ever more
important – especially in the urban areas. Blackouts and
“load-shedding” hours were extended, creating further hardships to
citizens who expected relief after the dismissal of the king in 2006.
10.
Environmental concerns increased. Kathmandu air quality continued to
drop. The sacred rivers have been reduced to sewage highways. A
shortage of drinkable water increased. An estimated 350 new vehicles
entered traffic daily – this in a city with no new additional roads and
already choking on interminable traffic jams.
11. Exports
declined. Unemployment was around 50%. Basic food and shelter remained
Nepalis’ two major concerns. There was a decline in farm output –this
in a country where agriculture employs over 80% of Nepal’s population.
The only signs of economic health were confined to tourism (which
significantly improved), real estate and foreign labor.
12. Sex-trafficking continued unabated. In general, the rights of women and children remained abysmal.
13.
The quest for quality education remained out of the reach of most
children in Nepal. Illiteracy was around 60% by some accounts. The
lucky minority of students who could afford it, fled to foreign
campuses, especially to American colleges: The US took 7,754 Nepali
students last year, a big jump from the 6,000 students allowed in the
year before. Those youths who were getting a foreign education admitted
that they were unlikely to return to Nepal, thereby continuing the
problem of “brain drain” in Nepal.
It all comes back to the elections.
The elections in Kenya were the trigger for the recent violence in a country praised for its peaceful inhabitants.
In
Nepal, few people are putting money on when the elections will actually
take place. Will the army be brought in? Will there be a civil-led army
takeover? What will the Maoists do? What will the Madeshi do? How long
will the public stand for postponement of the elections?
The next post will deal specifically with what has transpired in Nepal in the first six weeks of 2008.
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