October 10, 2009
KATHMANDU,
CAPITAL OF QUAGMIRE
When the 2006 Peace
Agreement was signed – marking the end of the Maoist armed conflict – it was
hoped that Nepal had set a new course for political stability. The largely
peaceful process of the 2008 elections reinforced that hope. But the
intervening eighteen months have acted as a steady drizzle, dampening Nepalis’
initial optimism.
The primary duty of
the Constituent Assembly was to pen a new constitution by May 2010.
Insufficient progress has been made to that end. If the CA cannot deliver as
promised, and when promised, the legitimacy of the interim government will be
thrown into question. And rightly so.
What has the CA been
doing with its time? Internecine power struggles between the various political
parties have sapped much of the energy that should have been directed
elsewhere. Focusing on emotional issues of symbolic importance – the shape of
the national flag, for instance – have taken precedence over the far less sexy
and more labor-intensive work of knocking out a document, a constitution that
would create a foundation and source of the legal authority for a new republic.
The 601 members of the CA were elected to be the architects of the framework
that would define the powers and duties of the main branches of Nepal’s
government. They were not hired as interior decorators.
Writing a
constitution, in the best of conditions, is a mammoth undertaking. Emerging
from an insurgency that claimed the lives of 16, 278 Nepalis (the death toll
was recently adjusted from the original 13,000 killed) is hardly what could be
called ideal conditions. In 2008, someone needed to be selected to take the
helm and to keep the Constituent Assembly on task – preferably someone who was
not easily distracted – a pragmatist, a taskmaster, a clock-watcher.
Prime Minister
Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) was the first man to have the opportunity to
steer the CA in the right direction. He did not. He worked very hard and very
efficiently to consolidate his party’s power until it blew up in his face with
the General Katawal debacle. Instead of returning to his cardinal task of
captaining the writing of a constitution, he quit his post to save face. In
poker terms, he lost heavily and decided to cash in his remaining chips; he
left the table but not the casino.
Left in the lurch,
the CA brought in Madhav Kumar Nepal: He became the new Prime Minister in May
2009. He inherited a CA in total disarray and has been working hard ever since
to pick up the pieces – not an easy task insomuch as wherever he and his
cabinet go, incensed Maoists block them with black flags and intransigent
rhetoric. It is true that the Maoists garnered a majority of votes during the
elections and they must still play a central role in the writing of the
constitution. But they behave as if they received a mandate, which is not the
case. They behave as if their reputation is the issue, not the writing of the
constitution.
How does the
outside world perceive Nepal? The clock ticks, the political deadlock in
Kathmandu continues – myopic and petty – while the southern swath of Nepal goes
to hell.
SOUTHERN NEPAL,
THE NEW KILLING FIELD
What is going on in
the rest of the country, particularly in the south, is of growing concern to
the international community. The politicos in the Kathmandu Valley should take
note of this concern.
In the three years
since the 2006 Peace Agreement, terrorist and unlawful activity has
dramatically increased with complete impunity and with no end in sight.
To give but one
example of the absence of accountability, in September 2007, there were riots
in Kapilvastu following the murder of a local Muslim landowner, Mohit Khan.
Fourteen people were killed, the town was torched (as were neighboring
villages) and thousands were displaced, afraid to return to an area that
offered no security. The perpetrators of the riots and murders and arson have
never been captured; the government has mounted no impartial investigation.
This is the norm in the south. Atrocities occur. Thugs and terrorists walk away
unscathed.
Last month, the
Informal Sector Service Center (INSEC) published findings that illustrate how
bad things really are. In the last two years and ten months, 1,284 deaths and
2,100 abductions have occurred in the Terai. Over 100 new underground
armed-groups have come into existence. 90% of the deaths have been attributed
to these armed groups. Adding to the general atmosphere of violence, political
parties have now formed semi-armed youth wings, perhaps in response to the
pre-existing YCL – the youth wing of the Maoists. 10 of the deaths and 336 of
the abductions in the Terai in the last three years are attributed to the YCL.
One of the old and
better organized armed-groups in the south (established in 2004), is the Akhil
Terai Mukti Morcha (ATMM), an insurgent outfit fighting for a separate homeland
for ethnic Madhesis, who make up one-third of Nepal’s population. The leader of
ATTM is Jaikrishna Goit. He was once a Maoist leader. Last week, in a secret
interview with Anuj Chopra (for Madhesi-United We Stand), Goit insisted that
Madhesis had the right to secede from Nepal and form an independent state. When
asked how he justified terrorism, murder and extortion to achieve his
separatist goals, Goit gave a bizarre response. He cited Gandhi: “’I would
rather have people resort to arms in order to defend her honor than that she
should in a cowardly manner remain a hopeless witness to their own dishonor.’”
(The provenance of the quote was not cited.) The article continues to explain
that, “After the interview, [which was conducted in an undisclosed place in
northern India], Mr. Goit crossed back over the porous border into Terai
through the flood plains of the monsoon-swollen Koshi river, which is lined
with sandbanks and riddles with shifting grasslands.”
This last bit is
what most concerns the international community: the ease with which outlaws and
terrorists can move undetected between Nepal and India. It’s beginning to look
like a very nasty breeding ground.
INDIA’S MISGIVINGS
– INSURGENTS AND THE PAKISTANI CONNECTION
There is no doubt
that criminal and terrorist movement from Nepal, made possible by its
1800-kilometer border, has forced India to reexamine how it regards its
northern neighbor. The steady succession of incidents that have occurred in the
last month alone illustrate why they are alarmed.
September 22:
Sudhanshu Sudhakar, an ex-soldier of the Indian Army was arrested in northern
India for spying for Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). He was
allegedly captured with dossiers on missile designs, locations of Indian Army
deployment along the Nepali border, as well as plans for future army deployment
to Jammu and Kashmir. Also seized in the arrest were five sim cards and a
Nepali mobile phone. Officials claimed that Sudhakar admitted that these were
used to contact “Rana”, an ISI operative employed at the Pakistan Embassy in
Kathmandu. Apparently Sudhakar was arrested on his way to Kathmandu to brief
the ISI representative. The suspect also admitted that he had already visited
Nepal twice earlier.
Another September
22 incident: According to Indian Express, the Anti-Terror Squad and Delhi Police had proof that three
Indian Mujahideen terrorists, accused of carrying out blasts in Delhi and Uttar
Pradesh, were currently hiding in Nepal: The three men were allegedly being
provided safe haven in Nepal by ISI.
October 1: Indian
police captured a Nepali Maoist leader who had escaped from a Nepali prison, “a
high security jail in Kanchanpur district of Nepal”, according to Press Trust
of India. Twelve other prisoners escaped but have not been captured. Again, the
point is that the porous Indo-Nepali border has become a symbol of safe-haven
for wanted men.
October 7: Majid
Manihar, the alleged kingpin of a counterfeit Indian rupees racket, operating
inside southern Nepal, was shot and killed in a hotel in Nepalganj. Manihar’s
son had been arrested the previous month in India, with large amounts of fake
currency in his possession. The son reportedly revealed Pakistan’s ISI role in
the counterfeit operation. Indian authorities assume that it was ISI operatives
who assassinated Manihar, fearing that he might cooperate with New Delhi, in an
effort to get his son released.
October 8: In the
Indian border state of Maharashtra, gunmen ambushed a group of 40 policemen,
killing 17 and injuring two. Ashok Chavan, Chief Minister of Maharashtra,
accused Nepali Maoists as the culprits. The gun battle lasted for four hours.
Several hours later, a “police informer” was beheaded. Maoists will obviously
deny any participation and so far no hard evidence has been brought forward to
substantiate the accusation. It would seem more likely that Naxalites (Indian
Maoists) committed the massacre. Naxalites freely roam Maharashtra and the
neighboring district of Chhatisgarh, one of the most lawless states in India.
But, again, the point is that the sheer volume of cross-border activity between
Nepal and India lends itself to such knee-jerk conclusions. The whole area is
out of control. Corruption is so pervasive that impunity has found very fertile
soil.
Yesterday, it was
announced that India and Nepal would be launching a joint operation along the
border area in an effort to reduce crime. The move is to be applauded, but the
task is huge and, in the past, Indian-Nepal cooperation has been a dicey dance.
AS INDIA
REEVALUATES NEPAL’S POTENTIAL THREAT, CHINA IS FORCED TO REEVALUATE NEPAL’S
INSTABILITY.
The volley of recriminations between India and China is commonplace and
Nepal is being dragged into the conflict. Only last week, the Indian government
accused China of setting up 24 “Nepal-China study centers” (most of which are
located along Nepal’s border with India) as spy centers. Ostensibly, the
centers were created to provide Nepalis with a deeper understanding of Chinese
customs, language and economical development. India’s external intelligence
agency, RAW, accuses the centers of being covers for monitoring Indian security
forces. RAW points out that most of the centers’ directors are former PLA
officers. Supporters of the Chinese, on the other hand, counter that RAW has
been spying in an on Nepal for decades, so who are they to complain?
What is important
for Nepal to remember is that, historically, Nepal has served both India and
China as a convenient buffer zone. It may be a curse, but it is also a blessing,
if Nepal uses this status to its full advantage. Because it is geographically
trapped between China and India, tiny Nepal will never be an entirely
independent nation. But Nepal can continue to exist as a sovereign state if it
is realistic about its own limitation: Its ability to survive is wedded to its
ability to maintain neutrality. (Recent attempts, for instance, to “play the
China card” against India is foolish and self-destructive.)
MAINTAINING
NEUTRALITY
In the 21st
century, maintaining neutrality is only going to become more challenging. Nepal should prepare itself: assertiveness from
India and China is only going to increase as their domination as world powers
accelerates in the upcoming decades.
And how can Nepal
maintain that precious neutrality? Taking a deep breath would be a good start.
Remembering what the goal of the 2008 elections was really about – to create a
new constitution that will adequately support the newest of the world’s
republics – is paramount.
And then proceed
from there. Restore law and order to the south. Encourage a judicial system
that can eliminate the prevailing attitude of impunity. Support the well-oiled
mechanization of the army instead of trying to bend it to ideological
preferences. Engage the southern district with dialogue and programs that will
foster security instead of additional armed-groups – thug outfits and
gang-bangers posing as political entities. Send a very loud message to would-be
terrorists (and the alarmed international community) that Nepal is no longer
friendly soil for their nefarious enterprises.
But first, get that damned constitution written.
The world is watching the clock even if the Constituent Assembly has
lost track of time.
