May 16, 2010
Peter Lee, an American journalist -- who writes on East and
South Asian affairs and their intersection with US foreign policy -- has
written a well-documented piece in yesterday’s Asia Times. Personal disclosure: Impartiality cannot be claimed
since Mr. Lee interviewed me and quoted me for the article.
The abrupt curtailment on May 7 of the bandh or general
strike in Kathmandu called by the United Communist Party Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M)
seemed to demonstrate the limits of the Maoists' popular support. However, this
apparent setback reflects a deal to smooth the Maoists' re-entry into Nepal's
government as China and Western powers try to bring an end to months of
unproductive and potentially violent deadlock. Beijing looks forward to the
formation of a consensus government incorporating the Maoists and responsive to
China's concerns.
India, on the other hand, must ponder if it is ready to
resign itself to the loss of a compliant if ineffectual client regime in
Kathmandu.
New Delhi orchestrated the entry of the Maoist insurgents
into mainstream politics. Then, alarmed by the Maoists' victories in the 2008
parliamentary elections, it propped up a rump government of democratic parties
that has been able to exclude the Maoists from civilian power, but unable to
win widespread respect and support. Concurrently, India ramped up its ties with
the reliably anti-Maoist Nepalese army, raising the specter of military
intervention and a return to civil war if the process of political
reconciliation collapsed.
Faced with Indian stonewalling, the Maoists found a willing
ally in Beijing - even though, on ideological grounds, the UCPN-M excoriates
the current regime of the Chinese Communist Party as "revisionist".
During the brief period in 2008 after the election when the
Maoists held power, in a conscious and high-profile break with precedent, the
prime minister made his first official visit to Beijing instead of New Delhi.
During the mortifying anti-Chinese demonstrations in the run-up to the 2008
Beijing Summer Olympic Games, the Maoist government ingratiated itself to China
by coming down hard on restive Tibetan refugees in Kathmandu.
Soon after, the Maoists pulled out of the government in a
dispute over successful (and somewhat unconstitutional) efforts by Nepal's
(pro-Indian) president to block the Maoists' attempts to remove the
(pro-Indian) chief of army staff.
Since then, in an atmosphere of increasing acrimony and
anti-Indian resentment, the Maoists have struggled to push aside the tottering
bourgeois edifice of coalition government nominally led by Prime Minister
Madhav Kumar Nepal of the Nepali Congress. Together with their People's
Liberation Army (PLA) personnel rusticating in United Nations-supervised
cantonements and thuggish Youth Communist League (YCL) street forces, the
Maoists are increasingly seen and resented as a part of the problem.
Although the Maoists dominate large areas of the
countryside, the urban insurrectionary nut has proved hard to crack.
At the beginning of May, the Maoists mustered over 100,000
supporters to Kathmandu to demand that a Maoist-led administration replace the
current order. The government, reportedly with backbone inserted by the Indian
government, declined to fold. Western powers met with the Maoists' leader,
Pushpa Kamal Dahal (nom de guerre "Prachanda", meaning
"awesome") to urge restraint.
The Maoists' claim to iron-handed control of the streets was
challenged by an embarrassing counter-demonstration of some 20,000 white-shirt
clad opponents. Prachanda decided not to escalate matters and called off the
bandh.
There was a certain amount of exultant backslapping among
the democratic parties that somebody had finally faced down the Maoists.
However, the euphoria was short-lived.
If the India-backed government had its way, it would have
weathered the bandh simply to kick the political can another year down the road
by extending the term of the current Constituent Assembly - which, by virtue of
the Maoists' boycott, has been able to accomplish nothing for a long, long
time.
However, this prospect was apparently not pleasing to the
European Union, the United States or China.
The deadlock has a cost. Financially and economically, Nepal
is a basket case. According to government statistics, 66% of Nepalese
households are short of food and half of the children in the country are
malnourished - and no doubt providing a ready reservoir of future cadres for
the Maoists. [1]
More importantly, the Maoists apparently have no intention
of allowing the current government to extend its rule.
May 28, 2010, is the witching hour - this is the date, after
over two futile and unproductive years, when the mandate of the Constituent
Assembly to write a new constitution and make way for normalized, democratic
business, expires.
The Maoists have declared that no extension of the assembly
is acceptable and the current government will have its legality evaporate on
May 28.
The Maoists have circulated reports that they are preparing
a "final jolt" - another round of mass demonstrations and strikes
designed to plunge the nation into a constitutional crisis and pave the way for
the Maoists' triumphant return to government on their own terms.
Observing the Maoist display of muscle in Kathmandu and the
continued helplessness of the coalition government as it stumbled into the
waning days of its existence, the US and EU have apparently decided to remove
the Nepal brief from New Delhi's hands and try to orchestrate a more peaceful
transition.
China finds itself in the highly satisfactory position of
lining up with the United States and against India on the matter of Nepal,
which has been recognized - both by the West and by China - as well within
India's sphere of influence for decades.
Already prior to the bandh, on April 26, US Assistant
Secretary of State Robert Blake visited Kathmandu to encourage the Maoists to
renounce violence both in the upcoming demonstration and in their political
platform.
In return, various inducements were offered: removal of the
Maoists from the US terrorist list and the promise that, if PLA combatants
couldn't find a happy home in the army, the West would throw some money at the
problem ("vocational training or other kinds of training," as Blake
put it). [2]
On April 29, Admiral Robert Willard, commander of the US
Pacific Command, visited Kathmandu to talk things over with the Nepalese army
and, presumably, discourage them from the idea of pouring from their barracks
to violently suppress the bandh.
Or, as the US Embassy put it:
[Willard] reiterated the United States' position that all
parties should exercise restraint during the planned upcoming demonstrations
and work to fashion a permanent peace through dialogue and constructive
consultations. [3]
On May 4, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson
Jiang Yu departed from China's stated policy of non-interference in other
countries' internal affairs and obliquely stated Beijing's support for a
government that included the Maoists:
As a friendly neighbor, China sincerely hopes that all
political parties in Nepal ... seek political common ground and properly handle
internal differences through dialogue and consultation so as to jointly press
ahead with the hard-won peace process ... [4]
After Prachanda obligingly pulled the plug on the irritating
but non-violent bandh (featuring the usual heavy-handed intimidation and
extortion of money, goods and services by the YCL, but little overt bashing
with clubs, bricks and bars), the US, the EU and China stepped in to encourage
the formation of a consensus government, that is, a government that included
the Maoists and, on the basis of the Maoists' plurality in the 2008 elections,
a Maoist prime minister.
The Telegraph Nepal, which often displays a resentment of
New Delhi's interference in Nepalese affairs, reported on the state of play -
and the perceived discomfiture of India's ambassador - with some relish on May
7:
[US ambassador Scott] DeLisi told [UCPN-Maoist number 2] Dr
Bhattarai that the US was ready to play a positive role to bring a logical end
to the stalled peace process of Nepal.
"We expect Nepal's two immediate neighbors, India and
China, to play constructive roles to end the current political impasse”, the US
envoy in his meeting with the Maoists' leader said, adding, "But, Nepalis
themselves should find a solution to their internal dispute."
The US for the first time has seen the need of the Chinese
regime to ""play" a role in ending the current Nepal dispute. A
grand departure from the old practices indeed. [India's] ambassador Rakesh Sood
has reasons to panic. [5]
On May 11, the Telegraph Nepal reported on rumblings in the local-language press
concerning a meeting between the Western ambassadors and the Nepalese foreign
minister:
Ambassador DeLisi preferred not to make any comments but yet
when he came out of the meeting room he told journalists that the US had no
objection to the formation of the Maoist-party-led government, but the strings
remain attached, writes the Kantipur Daily, May 11, 2010.
The Nagarik Daily,
May 11, 2010 on the other hand reveals quoting an unnamed source as saying that
the ambassadors clearly hinted during the meeting that Prime Minister Madhav
Kumar Nepal should tender his resignation to pave way for formation of a
National Unity Government. [6]
The "strings attached" relate to the
reconstitution of the UCPN-Maoists as a conventional political party through
the dissolution of its military and paramilitary wings - the PLA and YCL.
A fortuitous announcement of American largesse seems to
confirm that the US is encouraging the move to a deal with the usual financial
inducements, as the Himalayan Times relayed an announcement from the US
Embassy:
Nepal has been selected as one of 20 focus countries for US
President [Barack] Obama's $3.5 billion Feed the Future initiative, a
comprehensive approach that aims at reducing poverty in the developing world.
[7]
China also joined the club with the announcement that it
would provide 30 million Nepalese rupees (US$416,490) worth of food-related aid
to 10 districts along the Chinese-Nepali border. [8]
The Times of India grimly confirmed the buzz out of
Kathmandu and the unwelcome perception that, for the moment at least, New Delhi
must share the coveted Nepal brief with the West:
Usurping the Indian role of playing big brother in Nepal's
political affairs, Western governments, including the European Union, have
begun mounting pressure on Nepal's beleaguered Prime Minister Madhav Kumar
Nepal to quit. [9]
Premier Nepal, for his part, tried to disrupt the
proceedings and sow discord within the UCPN-M by declaring he would not step
down in favor of Prachanda - the brusque, determined "Mao Zedong" of
the movement, as it were - and implying that his Chou Enlai (and rival for
power), the silky, superior Dr Baburam Bhattarai, would be the preferred
choice.
However, the West's apparent designation of Prime Minister
Nepal as a lame duck seems to have tipped the post-bandh political balance back
to the Maoists.
Bhattarai exploited the perception of Western
dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Nepal (and attempted to dodge the awkward
question of dissolving the YCL) to assert that the premier was reneging on a
deal to step down after the Maoists called off the bandh.
China's state media helped keep the ball rolling by picking
up a report from the website nepalnews.com with the UCPN-M-friendly title
"Entrepreneurs urge PM to resign for consensus". [10]
However, Xinhua found it expedient to excise one paragraph
from the original that was not particularly flattering to the Maoists:
PM Nepal also urged the entrepreneurs not to give donations
to the Maoists, saying giving donations to Maoists would be like feeding milk
to a snake. [11]
The People's Daily pulled the article altogether, leaving
only the title. [12]
If reports in the Nepalese press are accurate, Western
powers are expressing dissatisfaction with the government's foot-dragging on
reconciliation and it appears the call to dissolve the YCL might become lost in
the shuffle.
On May 12, the two main coalition parties, the Nepali
Congress and the UML, resigned themselves to Prime Minister Nepal's departure
but tried to throw a different wrench in the works by calling for the Maoists
to announce a plan for eliminating PLA cantonements and committing to a
"timetable" for writing the constitution as conditions for setting up
a consensus government. [13]
For a party that has the word "Maoist" right there
in its name, the surrender of military assets - particularly when squaring off
again against the Nepalese army is a real possibility - is a difficult pill to
swallow.
Nevertheless, Prachanda declared his willingness to resolve
the PLA issue within four months and returned the focus to forcing out the
unpopular prime minister. In the words of nepalnews:
Stating that Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal will not
resign at any cost even if UML asks him, [Prachanda] finally said it was a
tussle between progressive and regressive forces, which will determine whether
republican Nepal will grow as an independent or dependent nation. [14]
If the coalition parties continue to throw up roadblocks
instead of capitulating, the Maoists may decide to let the struggle play out on
their terms after May 28 and turn to mediation from Western powers and China to
put Prachanda in the prime minister's chair and keep the Nepalese army off the
streets.
That would not be a particularly welcome outcome for New
Delhi.
However, India may finally decide that reconciliation, at
least on the surface, between the hostile parties is preferable to the
resumption of a bloody, grinding civil war on its northern border near the
"Red Corridor" where New Delhi is wrestling with its own nettlesome
Naxalite Maoist insurgency.
India's problems are, to a large extent, of its own making.
As author and Nepal expert Mikel Dunham told Asia Times
Online, "India is reaping what it sowed ... It always had the upper hand
in its dealings with Nepal and treated them like poor country cousins. Now
India can't make overt moves in Nepalese politics. They are damned if they do
and damned if they don't."
China finds itself in a strong position in Kathmandu, no
matter what happens. It has managed to keep its distance from the Maoists and
position itself as a generous and relatively apolitical provider of aid and
promoter of stability and development.
Dunham commented, "It doesn't make any difference who's
in power. Anyone in power will subscribe to a one-China policy. And that is all
Beijing expects of the Nepali government, at least at this juncture."
Notes
1. Nepal selected for Obama's $3.5 b programme, The
Himalayan Times, May 12, 2010.
2. Press Conference by Assistant Secretary Blake in
Kathmandu, Nepal, America.gov, Apr 26, 2010
3. ADMIRAL ROBERT F. WILLARD CONCLUDES VISIT TO NEPAL,
Nepal.usembassy.gov, Apr 29, 2010
4. Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Jiang Yu's Regular Press
Conference on May 4, 2010 , Foreign Ministry of PRC.
5. US prefers China & India playing practical role in
ending Nepal quarrel, Telegraph Nepal, May 7, 2010
6. Manage win-win situation for all in Nepal: Western
envoys, Telegraph Nepal, May 11, 2010
7. Nepal selected for Obama's $3.5 b programme, The
Himalayan Times, May 12, 2010
8. Chinese aid for 10 food crunch-hit hill districts, The
Himalayan Times, May 11, 2010
9. West pressures Nepal PM to quit, The Times of India, May
10, 2010
10. Entrepreneurs urge Nepali PM to resign for consensus.
Xinhua, May 9, 2010
11. Entrepreneurs urge PM to resign for consensus, Nepal
News, May 9, 2010
12. Entrepreneurs urge Nepali PM to resign for consensus,
People's Daily, May 9, 2010
13. NC, UML flexible on demand for national govt, Republica,
May 12, 2010
14. Maoists ready to keep combatants under special
committee, Nepal News, May 12, 2010
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